The Vancouver Scrum

Okay, Rockaholics, what now?

So Allan Rock has officially dropped out of the Liberal leadership race. There goes the one remaining serious contender -- Brian Tobin was the other -- who was seen as being something other than a business liberal; rather, Rock was thought by most to be an an old-fasioned welfare-state-lovin', Pierre Trudeau worshippin', bleedin'-heart Liberal. Rock's announcement didn't close the door on a future leadership run, but made it clear that he was not going to spend all that effort to finish a distant second to Paul Martin.

Rock admitted that former finance minister Paul Martin had amassed an insurmountable lead in the race to be the next Liberal leader. Martin, who has been organizing for another run at the Liberal leadership since he came in second to Prime Minister Jean Chrétien in 1990, controls most of the Liberal organization in Canada, including the majority of the riding associations in Ontario and British Columbia, and his supporters had made rules about access to Liberal membership forms that made it more difficult for other leadership contenders' organizers to sign up supporters.

Now the question is: who will the "bleedin' hearts" back? Paul Martin is seen as a Bay Street boy, a business Liberal; John Manley even more so. "Chairman" Dennis Mills, who has tossed his hat into the ring, is in favour of a flat income tax and has social-conservative views that put him at odds with those Liberals who want the party to move a bit to the left. Herb Dhaliwal's another biz-lib, and he can't even control his own riding association; how could he be expected to mount a serious challenge for the leaderhip of the Liberal Party of Canada?

This leaves the left-leaning Liberals with two choices, it seems:
1) support Tequila Sheila Copps, who has been raising money, but whose star has fallen since her third-place showing in the last Liberal leadership race.
2) hitch your wagon to Paul Martin and remind him that it's not just Bay Street backing him, but a lot of people who wouldn't mind seeing Paul Martin Jr. take the lead from Paul Martin Sr.

That last scenario isn't so preposterous. While Paul Martin is backed by right-of-centre elements in the party, he's also got the support of MPs like David Anderson, and (as much as he might not want her endorsement) Hedy Fry. Globe and Mail scribbler Rick Salutin thinks that Martin is not one to tear apart the social safety net, but maybe one to strengthen it. Patrick Gossage, former press secretary to Pierre Trudeau and current Liberal strategist, has suggested many times that Paul Martin really is his father's son.

Finally, we here at the Scrum eagerly await Warren Kinsella's reaction to the news that his man Allan Rock won't contest the Liberal leadership this time around. Come on, Warren, your fans are waiting!

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Of course, someone would have to put together the Gordon Campbell Book 'em, Danno photo. (thanks to Andy Henderson)

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More Campbell-Maui-Martini stories:

Globe and Mail: Premier's intake estimated at 10 drinks
For some reason, most of the assumptions that the analysts have been making are that every martini had 1 oz. of gin, and that those galsses of wine were about 5 oz. each. That might be what you get at a bar, but Campbell's host, retired Vancouver disc jockey Fred Latremouille said that he was pouring his own.
Globe and Mail: 'I thought he was fine,' dinner host says
Globe and Mail: New hurdles face B.C. Grits after arrest of Premier
Vancouver Sun: Victim panel, film await premier
Vancouver Sun: 'No evidence' Campbell a problem drinker
... this contradicts what former Liberal candidate Gail Sparrow told the press on Sunday
The Province: Campbell's reading will be made public

Commentary:

Vaughn Palmer: Campbell will get another chance - for now
Mike Smyth: Gordo's blowing it in more ways than one
Les Leyne: Can Campbell survive?
Ian Mulgrew: Hard to be top lawmaker and B.C.'s best-known criminal
Norman Spector: Campbell need not resign, but risks guillotine
John Ibbitson: You must step down, Mr. Premier . . . at least for a while